Berlin is sexy, Paris – the City of Love, Vienna is different. These are just a view examples of City marketing slogans to attract more investments and people to move in. Fact is – major cities are growing. More and more people are moving from rural to urban areas – for better job opportunities, better education, better healthcare, more culture, more love, etc.
This urban transformation process will speed up tremendously within the next years. The increase of the population in Cities are also increasing the green house gas emissions and also new buildings, transport facilities etc. are needed.
In China for example, according to a UNDP* report (in partnership with Renmin University of China) 350 million people are expected to move into Chinese cities by 2030. More than the entire population of the United States today.
The average energy consumption in cities is higher compared with rural areas. In 2007, everyday per capita energy use in urban areas in China was more than 2 times that of rural areas.
These movements need housing and also transportation to be built. The report estimates that China will need to build 50,000 new high-rise buildings (according to Emporis, New York City has currently around 7.000) and 170 new mass transportation systems.
As living standards rise, the demand for larger living and working spaces will rise, too. New green buildings, or adopting existing ones (retrofit) and infrastructure is one solution, reducing energy consumption by each individual is another one. But might it be enough?
Public transport would definitely reduce the green house gas emissions but on the other hand – during writing this article – Volkswagen (VW) announced that it has sold 1 million cars in China during the first seven month.
Since China is already a leading emitter of green house gases, the increase in the population of the major Chinese cities will also affect the world climate.
The Chinese government has already committed to develop a low carbon economy last year during the UN Climate Change Summit. So, the first step should be done. The question is, how this rapid development can be managed, financed and how a society on the way to more wealth fare can change?
What could be learned from other Cities? Chinese cities could cut private car use in favor of public transport systems as it has been the case for example in Tokyo. China could make the use of bicycles more attractive again like Copenhagen is doing.
Günter Theuermann
Managing Partner
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